Granger causality of the local Hadley cell and large-scale cloud cover over South Africa

Dawn D. Mahlobo; Thando Ndarana; Stefan W. Grab; Francois Engelbrecht

doi:10.17159/sajs.2019/5724

Granger causality of the local Hadley cell and large-scale cloud cover over South Africa

Authors

Dawn D. Mahlobo School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
Thando Ndarana Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
Stefan W. Grab School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7678-1526
Francois Engelbrecht Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2019/5724

Keywords:

Hadley circulation, mass flux, total cloud cover, solar energy potential

Abstract

This study demonstrates that Hadley cell dynamics could be used as a proxy to determine cloud cover and thus solar energy potential over South Africa. Granger causality was used to investigate causal interactions between the Hadley cell and cloud cover for the period 1980–2015, and such links were established. Areas of strong causality are found over the northwestern parts of South Africa. Moreover, weak causality from cloud cover to the Hadley cell does exist, with vertical velocity being the main variable responsible for this causality, which hence indirectly links cloud cover to Hadley cell causality.

Significance:

Hadley cell dynamics may be used to identify regions of cloudlessness over South Africa.
Hadley cell dynamics may further be used as a proxy for cloud cover towards understanding the solar energy potential in South Africa within the context of climate variability and change.

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Published

2019-09-26

Issue

Vol. 115 No. 9/10 (2019)

Section

Research Article

License

All articles are published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence

Copyright is retained by the authors. Readers are welcome to reproduce, share and adapt the content without permission provided the source is attributed.

Disclaimer: The publisher and editors accept no responsibility for statements made by the authors

How to Cite

Mahlobo, D. D., Ndarana, T., Grab, S. W., & Engelbrecht, F. (2019). Granger causality of the local Hadley cell and large-scale cloud cover over South Africa. South African Journal of Science, 115(9/10). https://doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2019/5724