Revealing human mobility trends during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Nigeria via a data-driven approach

Weiyu Luo; Chenfeng Xiong; Jiajun Wan; Ziteng Feng; Olawole Ayorinde; Natalia Blanco; Man Charurat; Vivek Naranbhai; Christina Riley; Anna Winters; Fati Murtala-Ibrahim; Alash’le Abimiku

doi:10.17159/sajs.2023/14727

Authors

Weiyu Luo Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Villanova University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7987-2199
Chenfeng Xiong Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Villanova University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4237-1750
Jiajun Wan Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3018-7999
Ziteng Feng Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Villanova University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
Olawole Ayorinde Institute of Human Virology Nigeria (IHVN), Abuja, Nigeria
Natalia Blanco 1.University of Maryland School of Medicine Institute of Human Virology, Baltimore, Maryland, USA; 2.Center for International Health Education and Biosecurity, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3157-1119
Man Charurat 1.University of Maryland School of Medicine Institute of Human Virology, Baltimore, Maryland, USA; 2.Center for International Health Education and Biosecurity, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA; 3.Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1719-2796
Vivek Naranbhai 1.Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Nelson R. Mandela School of Medicine, Doris Duke Medical Research Institute, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa; 2.HIV Pathogenesis Programme, Nelson R. Mandela School of Medicine, Doris Duke Medical Research Institute, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4281-8882
Christina Riley Akros, Lusaka, Zambia
Anna Winters Akros, Lusaka, Zambia
Fati Murtala-Ibrahim Institute of Human Virology Nigeria (IHVN), Abuja, Nigeria https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9943-8958
Alash’le Abimiku 1.Institute of Human Virology Nigeria (IHVN), Abuja, Nigeria; 2.University of Maryland School of Medicine Institute of Human Virology, Baltimore, Maryland, USA; 3.Center for International Health Education and Biosecurity, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2213-0204

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2023/14727

Keywords:

SARS-CoV-2, human mobility, trips, policy, Nigeria

Abstract

We employed emerging smartphone-based location data and produced daily human mobility measurements using Nigeria as an application site. A data-driven analytical framework was developed for rigorously producing such measures using proven location intelligence and data-mining algorithms. Our study demonstrates the framework at the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and successfully quantifies human mobility patterns and trends in response to the unprecedented public health event. Another highlight of the paper is the assessment of the effectiveness of mobility-restricting policies as key lessons learned from the pandemic. We found that travel bans and federal lockdown policies failed to restrict trip-making behaviour, but had a significant impact on distance travelled. This paper contributes a first attempt to quantify daily human travel behaviour, such as trip-making behaviour and travelling distances, and how mobility-restricting policies took effect in sub-Saharan Africa during the pandemic. This study has the potential to enable a wide spectrum of quantitative studies on human mobility and health in sub-Saharan Africa using well-controlled, publicly available large data sets.

Significance:

The mobility measurements in this study are new and have filled a major data gap in understanding the change in travel behaviour during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Nigeria. These measurements are derived from high-quality data samples by state-of-the-art data-driven methodologies and could be further adopted by other quantitative research related to human mobility.
Additionally, this study evaluates the impact of mobility-restricting policies and the heterogeneous effects of socio-economic and socio-demographic factors by a time-dependent random effect model on human mobility. The quantitative model provides a decision-making basis for the Nigerian government to provide travel-related guidance and make decisions in future public health events.

Open data set: https://github.com/villanova-transportation/Nigeria-mobility-COVID19-SAJS