The major advantages of electric vehicles are that they can utilise almost all the kinds of energy resources that can be used to generate electricity, thereby reducing the dependence of transportation on the volatile petroleum market; they can take advantage of the development of renewable energy for electricity generation; and there are no emissions at the end use, which helps to reduce pollution in urban areas.

Although electric vehicles are generally considered to be clean, the full environmental implication of electric vehicles depends very much on the cleanliness of the electricity grid. Nicolay et al.³ pointed out in 2000 that the results of a life cycle assessment on electric vehicles depend strongly on the efficiency of the energy supply chains as most of the pollutants considered in the study (CO₂, NO_x, SO_x, etc.) are directly linked to combustion. A report released in October 2009 by the National Research Council in the USA reported that when the damage and impacts of the whole life cycle were considered, the aggregate impacts depended on the grid; in that case the impacts of all electric vehicles became comparable to, or somewhat higher than, those from petrol in the USA, where coal and natural gas fired power plants account for the majority of total generation.⁴

Huo et al.⁵ studied the environmental implications of electric vehicles in China, where improved but still low efficiency and heavily polluting coal-fired power plants make up more than 80% of the total generation. They concluded that, in 2008, electric vehicles in China did not promise much benefit in reducing CO₂ emissions, compared with conventional petrol vehicles and petrol hybrids. A greater CO₂ reduction could be expected if coal combustion efficiency improved and the share of the non-fossil electricity increased significantly.⁵ The study also revealed that electric vehicles could increase SO₂ emissions by three to ten times and also double NO_x emissions compared with petrol vehicles, if the electric vehicles were charged using the current grid in China. These studies raised concerns about the timing of rolling out electric vehicles in some states. We studied the environmental implications of electric vehicles in South Africa now (2010) and in the future (2030).

There has been on average a 3% electricity consumption growth rate over a 20-year period in South Africa; 20 GW of additional generation capacity is required by 2020 and up to 40 GW by 2030, on top of the current net installed generation capacity and contracted imported generation amounts of 43.5 GW.¹⁰ As Eskom’s older coal-fired power stations will probably start to be decommissioned from 2023 onwards, a new capacity of 50 GW by 2030 is estimated by Eskom. The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research forecast that the electricity demand in South Africa in 2030 will be 40% to 60% higher than the electricity demand in 2009; Eskom’sSystem Operations and Planning Division model forecast even higher demand.¹¹ Electricity consumption for electric vehicles was not considered in either forecast.

As stated in the Eskom 2010 Annual Report, coal-fired power stations contributed 92.8% of the total of 232 812 GWh electricity generation by Eskom in 2009/2010, balanced by 5.5% from nuclear, 1.2% from pumped storage and other, 0.5% from renewable energy and only 0.02% from gas.¹⁰ The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 1) published in January 2010 projected 10 000 GWh (approximately 4% of the energy mix) of renewable energy by 2013.¹² This projection indicates an increase of renewable energy in the future, but the number is still insignificant as the majority of the newly installed capacity is still from coal.

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2010 Revision 2) summarises the existing South African generation capacity in its Appendix D.¹¹ It states that, amongst all the power plants operated by Eskom and others, coal-fired power plants contribute 35.5 GW generation capacity, nuclear contributes 1.8 GW and hydropower 2.1 GW (including 1.5 GW from Cahora Bassa) to base load generation. Pump storage contributes 1.58 GW for peaking supplies together with 2.4 GW from gas turbines.¹¹ There is a further 0.5 GW generation capacity from various limited energy plants using various resources.

The IRP 2010 Revision 2, which was promulgated in May 2010, also draws a picture of the generation mix in the future.¹¹ The ’revised balanced scenario’ was considered to represent a fair and acceptable balance when the draft report was released in October 2010,¹¹ considering the divergence in stakeholder expectations and key constraints and risks.¹¹ A ’policy-adjusted IRP’ was proposed in the final report released in March 2011.¹¹ In the policy-adjusted IRP scenario, 54.7 GW generation capacity will be built between 2010 and 2030, with 10.9 GW capacity decommissioned. This build will increase the current total generation capacity to 89.5 GW to cope with the peak demand forecast of 67.8 GW in 2030. Renewable power generation technology will dominate the newly built generation capacity (including the committed new builds) with a total of 18.8 GW, followed by coal-fired power plant’s 16.4 GW, nuclear’s 9.6 GW, peak open-cycle gas turbine plant’s 4.9 GW and closed-cycle gas turbine plant’s 2.4 GW, as well as 2.6 GW of imported hydropower. By 2030, 10.9 GW coal generation capacities will be decommissioned. The current (2010) generation mix and that projected for 2030 (according to the policy-adjusted IRP) are summarised in Table 1.

There is transmission and distribution loss in the grid. The actual loss as stated in the Eskom 2010 Annual Report¹⁰ was 8.45% in 2010, which includes a total distribution loss of 5.87% and a total transmission loss of 3.27%. This loss, as claimed by Eskom, is within the benchmark parameters of 5.60% to 12.07% and in the first quartile of the top performing distribution utilities in terms of total energy losses. Improvement is therefore not forecast in the loss management. The lower benchmark of 5.60% loss is estimated for 2030.

The Eskom 2010 Annual Report states that for every kWh generated, CO₂ emissions are 0.98 kg, particulate emissions 0.39 g, SO₂ emissions 8.10 g and NO_x (as NO₂)emissions are 4.17 g.¹⁰ These numbers are very high compared to European countries, Australia and the USA, as stated in the annual report, but agree with the findings of von Blottnitz¹³ that the South African power industry emits more nitrous oxide, sulphur oxide and particulates than are emitted by electricity generators in any of the 15 European countries studied. According to von Blottnitz¹³, these higher emissions are because of (1) the comparatively high specific emissions from coal-fired power plants (with South African stations performing at the worst level relative to most of Europe, alongside the Spanish, Greek and Hungarian industries), and (2) the comparatively very extensive use of coal for electricity generation in South Africa.¹³

There has not been any major plan from Eskom to significantly improve the efficiency and pollution control of current coal-fired power plants. New technologies do exist to improve the emissions and the energy efficiencies from coal-fired power plants and have been used worldwide. The IRP 2010 input parameters published by the Department of Energy in South Africa for various technologies have been investigated and are listed in Table 2, together with the current (2010) generation mix and that projected for 2030 (according to the policy-adjusted IRP).

Because of a lack of detail regarding the life cycle assessment of synthetic liquid fuels, as well as to simplify the calculation, we assumed in this study that the introduction of electric vehicles in South Africa will initially replace only the market share of the imported conventional liquid fuel that is made from crude oil. Emissions from synthetic liquid fuel are therefore not included in this study.

The environmental standards for liquid fuel quality in South Africa are low. The current refineries in South Africa produce petrol and diesel based on the dated Euro III specifications, which are reflected in SANS 1598:2006 for petrol and SANS 342:2006 for diesel. The sulphur content of petrol and standard diesel is set at 500 mg/ kg. The sulphur content of high-quality diesel is set at 50 mg/kg, but this diesel is available in only some parts of the country. There has been commitment from the South African Petroleum Industry Association to progress towards Euro IV-compliant fuel, which has a sulphur content of 50 mg/kg,²⁰ or even Euro V-compliant fuel, which has a sulphur content of 10 mg/kg.²¹ It is presumed in this study that the sulphur content of petrol and diesel in South Africa in 2030 will meet the Euro V-compliant standard, which is less than 10 mg/kg.

The emissions from light passenger vehicles in South Africa are regulated in SANS 20083:2007, which is equivalent to the Euro III standards.²² It was presumed in this study that the Euro VI-compliant²³ emission standards will apply in South Africa in 2030. The relevant emission limits are listed in Table 3.

There is no report on the overall petroleum refining and distribution efficiency in South Africa. A study conducted in Europe reports an energy consumption of 0.155 MJ/MJ with 14 g CO₂eq/MJ emissions for diesel fuel and an energy consumption of 0.125 MJ/MJ with 12 g CO₂eq/MJ emissions for petrol.¹⁷ Crude oil refining accounts for most of the energy costs and the CO₂ emissions. These values were adopted in our calculations for 2010. A 20% efficiency increase was estimated for 2030, which gives an amount of 11 g CO₂eq/MJ for diesel. These emission estimations are obviously different from that in South Africa and our calculations should be reconsidered when the local value is available. The SO_x, NO_x and particulate emissions during the refining and distribution of liquid fuel are unknown and were not considered in this study.

There is no report available on the on-road efficiency of other petrol hybrid electric vehicles and electric vehicles in South Africa. The first South African made electric vehicle, Joule, is expected to be available in 2013.²⁵ The Joule is a light passenger car with five seats and a 230 km to 300 km range. It can be regarded as comparable to the 1.6 L – 1.8 L conventional fuel light passenger cars, but the energy consumption of the Joule has not yet been released on its manufacturer’s website. The ratios of the fuel efficiency values of hybrid electric vehicles, electric vehicles and conventional vehicles in the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) Model²⁶ were adopted on the basis of the same class of vehicle, as well as the same driving conditions.

At the moment, there are no regulations for CO₂ emissions in South Africa, and therefore no regulations for the fuel efficiencies of vehicles. The European Union had a voluntary agreement with the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, which was to achieve a fleet average for CO₂ emissions of 140 g/km (equivalent to 5.8 L/100 km for petrol) in 2008 for new passenger cars. This target was not achieved. The ultimate target is now 130 g/km CO₂ emissions for all new passenger cars by 2015. The European Union is pushing for a new target of 95 g/km for a new car fleet average in 2020.²⁷ In this study, we assumed that by 2030, petrol-engine light passenger cars in South Africa will have achieved the CO₂ emission target of 130 g/km (5.6 L/100 km for petrol). The fuel efficiencies of the diesel-engine vehicles, petrol hybrid, and electric vehicles for 2030 were adjusted according to the fuel efficiency ratio in 2010.

The rated fuel consumptions of conventional petrol internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), diesel ICEVs, petrol hybrid electric vehicles and electric vehicles are listed in Table 4.

With the application of advanced electricity generating technologies and fewer coal-fired power plants in the generation mix, the CO₂ emissions from electric vehicles can be reduced significantly from the current level. In the case of the proposed policy-adjusted IRP in the IRP 2010 Revision 2, electric vehicles will be the low carbon emission option in 2030, producing only 69% of the CO₂ emissions of a petrol ICEV and 97% of the CO₂ emissions of a petrol hybrid electric vehicle per kilometre travelled.

In terms of CO₂, SO_x and NO_x emissions, whose effects are not limited to the point of pollution, the environmental benefits from electric vehicles are very limited in the current situation. The worst case scenario is that 35 to 50 times more SO_x will be emitted when conventional vehicles are replaced with electric vehicles in the current grid. The CO₂ emissions from electric vehicles in the current grid are higher than those of vehicles using conventional liquid fuel. NO_x emissions will be at least double those of ICEVs and hybrid electric vehicles. The total GHG emission is actually greater from electric vehicles.

As the grid is becoming cleaner, thanks to the implementation of advanced coal-fired power plant technology as well as renewable energy, these emissions can be cut significantly in 2030. Electric vehicles will be a cleaner option when only CO₂ emissions need to be considered in 2030, with similar performances from petrol hybrid electric vehicles. When switching to electric vehicles from ICEVs, a reduction in CO₂ emissions of 18% to 31% can be achieved per kilometre travelled. In the case of NO_x, the life cycle NO_x emissions from electric vehicles will still be four to six times higher than those from vehicles using conventional liquid fuel. As the reduction in NO_x emissions is not significant enough, electric vehicles are still the worst option when one considers the total GHG emissions. The worst case is that of SO_x: although there is a projected 43% reduction in SO_x emissions from the grid in 2030 compared to in 2010, the life cycle SO_x emission from electric vehicles will be more than 1000 times higher than those from ICEVs and hybrid electric vehicles in 2030.

Implementing electric vehicles in South Africa does not help to cut total GHG emissions, now (2010) or in the foreseeable future (2030), and would lead indirectly to higher SO_x and NO_x emissions. If electric vehicles are to play an important role on South Africa’s roads, new technologies have to be investigated and implemented to lower the SO and NO emissions for electricity generation further, in order to make electric vehicle emissions comparable to those of ICEVs and hybrid electric vehicles.