Exploring farmers’ seasonal climate forecast needs: Co-producing forecasts for food security

Abstract

Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) are explored as an additional tool for farmers to use to act against seasonal climate fluctuations and to support greater food security for themselves and their customers. In this study, we compared the SCF needs and possible emerging farming actions of commercial farmers and smallholder farmers while exploring the prospects for developing SCF tools to aid farmers. Our intent was not to produce a new SCF, but to improve the farmers’ reception, understanding and uptake of existing SCFs. The results show that both farmer groups saw value in SCFs in improving their farming actions (and, by implication, improving their food security) and provided detailed information on their specific SCF needs to support their decision-making, such as how to improve trust, the type of information they would like to receive, how to make SCFs more understandable, and how to make SCFs relevant for their farming actions. The needs of the two groups differed marginally, but the major barrier for smallholder farmers was SCF access as a result of a lack of smartphones and network coverage.

Significance:

The findings help us to understand what farmers need to know to perceive a use and make use of SCFs, and to provide guidance in bridging the gap between existing SCF products and farmers taking more informed farming actions that will increase their resilience to climate change and improve their food security. This will enable us to build seasonal climate forecasting information tools that can be easily accessed and understood by commercial and smallholder farmers alike.